Nnly Italy and Germany call for special comment, insofar as they have made the most determined efforts by subsidies, tax and other measures to bribe people into having larger families. Mussolini in 1928 introduced marriage subsidies and taxed young bachelors, but the birth-rate continues to decline. In 1911 it was 31.5 per thousand, and during the first six years of the present decade it has been 26.7, 24.9, 23.8. 23.7, 23.4 and 23.3 respectively. Speaking to an assembly of 60 bishops and 2.000 priests in Rome, Signor Mussolini said : "The priests should help to raise the numerical strength--o-f the population, since it was the big families which furnished the bigbattalions. Italy, as a Catholic nation, had a special duty to serve as a bulwark of Christian civilization, because of her intrinsic strength and the number of her sons."* A decree dated 1st September, 1938, states that all State employees must marry if they desire to obtain promotion-before the age of 26 in subordinate grades, and 30 in the highe1· grades. Germany. It is in Germany that the n~ost active measures have been taken of )ate iears to encourage large families. According to an official pu\)!ication, the army authorities were perturbed at the official estimate that whereas in 1937 young people of both sexes who attained their fourteenth year numbered 1,100,000, in 1947 there would be only 822,000 reaching that age. By an ingenious system of marriage loans for the purchase of furniture, there has been a large increase in the number of marriages, 822,000 couples havirig availed themselves of these facilities during the four years up to September, 1937. Hardly a year passes without some increase in the inducements offered to increase the number of births. The following extract from the Berliner Tageblatt gives some idea of these measures : "A wide extension of the Nationai-Socialist system for subsidising families with many children was announced by Herr Reinhardt, Secretary of State in the Finance Ministry, on December 30, 1937. As from April, 1938, the grant of lOm. (16s.) ·a month introduced in the summer of 1936 for fifth or later children of socially insured workers earning low wages, is to be given for the third or fourth child, and 20m. (32s.) a month will be given for the fifth or later child. The wage limit for beneficiaries, now 200m. (£16) is also increased to 600m. (£48) a month. The effect of these changes will be to quadruple the numher of children for which grants will be made in 1938. Such payments are additional to the single grant of goods or assistance to the value of 330m. (£27 10s. Od.) made since 1935 to needy families on the birth of a child, and a further 270,000,000 marks (£22,500,000) will be set aside for this purpose, in addition to the existing 250,000,000 marks." ~Daily Telegraph, lOth January, 1938. 13 As an afterthought-for it had been apparently overlooked- some of these concessions, such as a rebate of Income Tax proportionate to the number of children, have been cancelled as. regards the Jewish population. The result of all these measures has undoubtedly been to stop the fall in the birth-rate, which in 1911 was 28.6 per thousand, in 1921 25.3 and in 1933 14.7, for in 1934 it rose to 18, in 1935 18.9 and in 1936 19.0 per thousand · !his i still probably under replacement rate, but on the surfac~ tt looks as though the measures taken have at least checked the decline. My own opinion is that the improvement will prove to be temporary, and that these subsidies and concessions promote earlier marriages, rather than larger families. If a couple marryearlier, they may have their children earlier, but those whose ideal is a two-child or three-child family are not going to produce a much larger number of children just because they have married' younger. Time will show whether this supposition is correct, or not. In Great Britain the number of marriages has also increased since 1933, without any subsidy, the reason being the improvement in trade, and that is already being reflected by the slight increase in the number of births mentioned previously. U.S.S.R. No figures are yet available for Russia, but it is generally understood that the birth-rate is above replacement level. Replacement or Reproduction Rate. These expressions have been much used in the foregoing notes. Professor Robert R. Kuczynski has provided the perfect formula for determining the reproduction rate in his book The Measurement of Population Growth (Sidgwick and Jackson, 12s. 6d.). He points out that for this statistical purpose one needs to take into account only the female population, and that if fertilityand mortality are such that 1,000 newly-born girls, during the course of their lives, give birth to 1,000 girls, the first generation of 1,000 females will, at its death, have_ been_ fully r~placed by the girls they have borne, and the populatwn will remam constant; otherwise it will, in the long run, increase_ or decrease. It remains to be added that on this basis the population of Englandand Wales is reproducing itself to the extent of slightly less t~an 75 %, and that to maintain the population, each wom~n of chtldbearing age should, during her life, produce three chtldren. Causes of the Decline. The theory sometimes heard that there is a strike against motherhood on account of the unsettled state of the world, does not find support from the high birth rates during periods when 14 wars were endemic. Greater knowledge of birth control methods, together with the determination of the modern woman to participate more fully in life itself than in its creation, is the more likely explanation. Conclusion. l·nless some totally unforeseen circumstances arise, the outlook is that, beginning some time during the next decade, thi:; country will have a declining population with, for several years, a sharp increase in the average age. The opinion may be expressed that, excluding the question of military power, there is nu inherent vi rtue or advantage in a large population; the averageinhabitant of Sweden or Switzerland is no less happy, or less prosperous, than his contemporary in France or Britain-let alone China. But the outcome of the social and economic effects of the changes here described, involving a decrease in the population, coupled with an increase in the proportion of the aged, at the expense of children and workers, will be far-reaching, and will involve great social disturbances unless preceded, or at least accompanied, by a drastic redistribution of income and a rc- Qrganization of society. THE FABIAN SOCIETY 11 DARTMOUTH STREET, WESTMINSTER, LONDON, S.W.I. Those willing to join the Labour Party, or desirous of obtaining information about its Programme and Principles, are invited to communicate with the Secretary of the Fabian Society. 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