N<? 246 


OUR AGEING 
POPULATION 


A. EMIL DAVIES 
PuBLisHED AND SoLD BY 

THE FABIAN SOCIETY 

THE FABIAN SociETY, 11 DARTMOUTH STREET, ' 
WEsTMINSTER, S.W.l. PuBLISHED Ocr., 1988. 
Telephone : 'WHITEHAll 4715. 

PRICE 2r: 



1 

Our Ageing Population. 

By A. El\1IL DA VIES. 

!he reading public has suddenly become population-conscious, 
and 1s vaguely aware that at some future time we shall be faced 
with a declining population. According to a publication of the 
Population Investigation Committee, the number of inhabitants 
in_ the British Isles, ·which is now estimated to be about 49,000,000,* 
w!ll (irssuming that there is no change in the present trend of the 
birth and death rates) be as follows :


1940 40,700,000 T hese figures 

refer to

1950 39,800,000 England and 

1970 33,800,000 } Wales on ly. 

2000 17,700,000 

The purpose of this tract is not so much to deal with the decline 
in population which may occur many years hence, as rather to 
draw attention to a factor that is somewhat neglected by writers 
on population-a factor which is already in operation and will 
affect the present generation very considerably. This is the increasing 
average age of the comm~tnity. 

It is possible, by the use of statistics, to arrive at fantastic 
conclusions. An American authority, as the result of a so-called 
statistical investigation, once informed an astonished body of 
readers that the average American was aged 36, of dark complexion, 
5ft. 7±in. in height, a Methodist, married and possessed 
of 3! children, one of them black! One might argue statisticallythat, because the death-rate in Bournemouth is 13.9 per thousand, 
and in Lewisham only 10.9, the latter is a much healthier place 
than the former, whereas, of course, it is precisely because the 
seaside town is known to be healthy that a large number of ailingand elderly persons take up residence there. 

One statistical fact, however, cannot be controverted, namely, 
that (apart from the question of immigration) one can state with 
certainty the maximum number of persons in this country who 
will be 21 years old and over in any one of the next twenty years, 
because all who will be 21 before then are alive to-day. It is not 
what will happen in 1958 that will decide how many men and 
women of 21 years there will be, but the number of children born 
in 1937. 

*England 38 millions, Wales 2t millions, Scotland 4i millions, Northern 
Ireland U millions, Eire 3 millions. 


2 

Increase of Average Age. 

Contrary to the general impression, the decline in the birthrate 
is not of quite recent origin. It has been happening ever 
since 1875. In that year the number of live births per thousand 
of existing population was 35 ;* in 1937 it had fallen to 14.9. 
There is still a slight annual excess of births over deaths, due to 
the continuous improvement in the death-rate which in 1875 was 

22.8 per thousand, in 1936 12.1, and in 1937 12.4 per thousand. 
This actual increase in population, which is due to a fall in death-
rate and not a ri sing birth-rate, has hitherto masked the fact that 
the average age of the population has steadily increased. The 
average expectation of life now is something like 20 years more 
than it was two generations ago, but as the average age increases, 
the death-rate must inevitably grow, and it is possible that this 
tendency has already set in, the death-rate for 1937 being 12.4 per 
thousand as against 12.1 per thousand in 1936. In 1914 there were, 
roughly speaking, 1 million persons over 70; now their number 
is 2 millions, of whom 1,200,000 are women. 
In 1965 it is estimated that the number will reach 3~ millions. 

Live Bir.th Rate. 

The following table shows the number of live births every 
fifth year, beginning with 1905, the last seven years being given 

separately :1905 
929,293 
1910 896,962 
1915 814,614 
1920 957,782 
1925 710,582 
1930 648,811 
1931 632,081 
1932 613,972 
1933 580,413 
1934 597,642 
1935 598,756 
1936 605,292 
1937 610,557 
It will be seen that, generally speaking, these show a steady 

decline, with the result that the 1937 total is only two-thirds that 
of 1905. The sharp rise in 1920 \\'as, of course, due to the conclusion 
of the war, and the slight rise that has occurred since 
1933 will be commented upon in due course. 

*Except where otherwise stated, all statistics relate to England and Wales. 


3 

Fewer Potential Mothers. 


It is obvious that, other things being equal, there cannot be 
so many potential mothers among the 814,614 babies (399,409girls) born in 1915 as among the 929,293 babies (456,407 girls)
born in 1905, and that, as compared with the latter figure, there will 
be one-third fewer potential mothers when the 283,684 girls of the 
1933 birth crop (580,413) are of child-bearing age. 

The slight increase in births that has occurred during the 
past four years is probably due to the increased number of 
marriages since 1932, a phenomenon that invariably accompanies 
an improvement in trade. As a result of the fall in the birth-rate, 
however, the number of persons of marriageable age twentyyears' hence will be less than two-thirds of what it is to-day. 

This decline in the birth-rate is a new phenomenon in history. 
Hitherto, the human race has always automatically reproduced 
itself, and society to-day is therefore confronted with an unprecedented 
state of affairs, particularly in that there is a larger percentage 
of middle-aged and elderly people in the population than 
ever before. Roughly speaking, in 1901 there were two adults 
to one child; to-day the proportion is three to one, and unless some 
entirely new factor presents itself, in 1965 there will be five adults 
to one child. 

Social and Cultural Effects. 

This increase in the average age of the community will affect 
-indeed, is already affecting-all fields of activity, be they cultural 
or economic. It must be realised, however, that owing to improved 
health conditions, people to-day are younger at a given age than 
was the case a generation ago, when the man of 60 probablyshuffled about in carpet slippers, wearing a smoking-cap, and the 
woman of SO spent her evenings at home wearing a mob-cap,
whereas to-day both probably play tennis and almost certainly 
spend some of their evenings dancing: "0Jevertheless, there are 
t0-day more people than ever before, feeling and thinking in the 
way that one does feel and think in middle age. 

This tendency is already reflected in novels and plays. In the 
novel of 100 years or more ago, the average heroine was as 
immature in age as in intellect. In T01n !ones we meet Sophia 
Western at the age of 18. In Quentin Durward the heroine is 
aged 15, and the other principal female character, the Countess, 
aged 35, is described as an old woman. That a 'heroine should be 
as old as 30, was sufficiently striking for Balzac to choose La 
Femme de 30 Ans, as a title. If we turn to modern authors, however, 
we find that in Compton Mackenzie's East Wind of Love, the 
principal female character makes her appearance at the age of 
39, \\·hilst in Ann Bridge's Illyrian Spring, the heroine is described 


4 

as being in the early forties, and has a grown-up daughter. An 
increase in. the average age of the principal male character is also 
discernible. 

Sports and Recreations. 

A corollary of the increased average age is the greater attention 
paid to less active sports, games and recreations, such as golf(which is largely in the nature of a medical and alcoholic treatment), 
and bowls, which is gaining enormously in popularity.
Bridge would not have attained its present vogue if it were not 
for the existence of so many middle-aged people. Cruises also 
have becorne more favoured on account of the fact that theyafford the least laborious method of travel. A lady recently informed 
me that she had returned from a six-months' cruise and 
had had the time of her life, for she was the "baby of the ship" 
at the age of 41 ! 

A Californian Example. 

In the course of a lecture tour some years ago, I found 
myself in the city of San Diego in Southern California, not far 
from the Mexican border. It appeared that those responsible 
warned every lecturer that he would be speaking to a "grey-haired 
audience." They explained that San Diego was, for climatic and 
other reasons, the favoured permanent home of people from the 
middle states who had saved enough to live on, with the result that 
the average age was unusually high. Regarding this city of 100,000 
people as an example, in many ways, of future communities with 
a high average age, I took particular note of the conditions there, 
and summarised them as follows:


Much attention paid to gastronomy, special dishes, wines mu! 
the like, being a frequent topic of conversation. Nine Golf Courses 
and one Women's Golf Club. More than 100 different clubs, including 
a large nu111,ber of Women's clubs. Several dramatic ana 
musical societies, art centres, Open Air Greek Theatre, and the 
like. Dante, .Mozart and Shakespeare societies. Lecture groups 
galore. Highly developed library system. Excellent series of evening 
classes, half the students being women between the ages of 40 
and 70, many learning history, science, art--in fact, predominantly 
non-commercial subjects. women the chief political factor, ana 
crowds of then-t eager to do social work, but not enough poor to goround. Oue Church for every 1,000 of population (including the 
delightfully named Casanova Congregational Church). l\·umerous 
freak religious. Headquarters of the American Theosophical 
Society, the head of which was a womau, the late Jl!rs. Tingley. 
A ".\[eta physical Library." 


5 

A London Parallel. 


Many of the tendencies referred to in the description of the 
social life of San Diego are already finding expression in our own 
country, if one knows where to look for them. In 1919 the 
London County Council started, in an old building in a small 
street off Drury Lane, an institution termed the City Lite'raryInstitute, the primary object of which was to give facilities for 
adult education in the humanities and non-commercial subjects 
generally. As these facilities gradually became known, the Institute 
attracted an ever-growing number of persons, mostly of middle-
age. From a membership of 182 in 1919-1920, it has grown to a 
membership of 7,000, which has necessitated the construction of an 
entirely new building. In visiting this wonderful Institution, one 
sees much the same phenomena as are particularised in the case 
of the Californian city, namely, large numbers of middle-agedpeople, predominantly women, studying languages, literature, 
drama, etc. The prospectus of the City Literary Institute gives 
details of no fewer than 269 courses.* It is much more than a 
school ; it is more like a people's university for the adult, having an 
intense social life, in proof of which I need merely enumerate the 
following societies :-Dance club, Debating society, Film society, 
Operatic society, Chess club, Dramatic societies, French, German 
and Italian circles, Leag-ue of Friendship, Group for the Studyof London. · 

So successful has this institution been, that the London 
County Council has found it desirable to create twelve others in 
various parts of its area. 

Status of Women. 

It will have been noticed that women loom largely in the 
foregoing brief surveys. There is little doubt that the changes in 
population that are taking place are in the direction of improvingthe status of women. Childless marriages, or smaller families, 
give women more time for self-development and opportunitiesof playing a more prominent part in the various activities of life. 
Incidentally, the fact that the middle class now spends more upon 
the education of girls than it used to-when their interests were 
entirely subordinated to those of their brothers-acts as a further 
deterrent to large families among that class. 

Decline in .the Number of Children. 

Circular 1426 ~f the Ministry of Education issued in 
1933 indicated that in the five years iollowing its publication,
the number of children on the registers of ElementarjSchools in England and Wales was expected to fall by 629,0,00, and 

• Prospectus can be obtained on application to The Education Officer, 
The County Hall, London, S.E.l. 

6 

that by the year 1948 the fall would reach the million mark. On 
the basis of the present percentage of children enjoying SecondarySchool education, the number in those schools is estimated to 
drop 42 per cent by 1965-from 449,000 to 260,000. That 
children are becoming more rare, is within the experience of every 
person of middle age, and over. Nowadays, the presence of a 
baby, or two or three small children, in a public vehicle, arouses 
interest on the part of nearly all the other passengers, whereas a 
generation ago, these little family parties were so frequent and 
numerous that they were regarded more as a nuisance than otherwise. 
Children in a small family are apt to be more spoilt than 
where they are more numerous. To the State they are beginning 
to have scarcity value, and more and more protective measures are 
likely, as witness the milk scheme and the raising of the school 
age. With the increase in the school-leaving age children are no 
longer welcomed by their parents as contributors to the family 
income, and this is an additional deterrent to large families amongconsiderable sections of the community. 

Health Services and the Medical Profession. 

The pursuit of better health already perceptible, e.g., National 
Fitness Campaign, holidays with pay, will proceed further and be 
accompanied by a huge extension of medical services and treatment, 
possibly ending-in a State Medical Service, as now proposedin New Zealand. The effects on the medical profession of the 
increasing age content of the population are already visible. 
Private doctors complain tl-tat they get little or no experience in 
midwifery, on account of the smaller number of births and the 
increasing use of hospitals and clinics for maternity cases. 
Children's ailments are declining, not merely because of the smaller 
total of children, but because, in a one or two child family, there 
are fewer carriers of infection from school or cinema. On the 
other hand, diseases of middle and old age are increasing, those 
outstanding being :-chronic rheumatism, digestive troubles, kidney 
and liver troubles, gastric and duodenal ulcers, diabetes, psychoneuroses 
caused by fears, anxieties and obsessions, cancer. One 
of the reasons why the treatment of cancer has not made as much 
progress as that of other diseases is that it is largely an affliction 
of old age, and it is only within the last few decades that it has 
become prominent-in other words, many people who would have 
had it, died before it made itself apparent. For obvious reasons, 
there will be an increasing demand for so-called rejuvenation processes 
and aphrodisiacs. 

Economic and Industrial Effects. 

As will have been seen from the figures on page one, it is 
estimated that there will be a fall in the population of these islands 
beginning shortly :lfter 1940. It will be some years before the fall 


7 

is very noticeable, but gradually, industries organised for mass 
production, particularly necessities, will begin to suffer from a 
decreasing demand. Industrialists have thus far been accustomed 
to a large annual increase in the number of consumers, and with 
the present chaotic system it is probable that some time will elapse 
before they realise that they are making extensions and completing 
new factories to meet the requirements of consumers who 
will not be born. This is probably one of the underlying causes 
of the American depression, for not only is the birth-rate followingthe same course as with ourselves, but the practical cessation of 
immigration is accentuating the tendency referred to. 

The increase in the average age is in our own country a more 
immediate factor affecting industry. Obviously, fewer children 
and more elderly people must result in considerable change~ in 
demand, and gradually bring about large transfers of capital and 
labour from one industry to another. Not everything will show 
a reduction in demand; a population of 30 millions will require 
as well-developed a road and railway system as one of 40 millions, 
and even as regards housing, more houses will be required for a 
greater number of families up to at least 1950, for the number of 
marriages should continue to increase until then, before the reduction 
in the birth-rate makes itself felt in this respect. What 
we are experiencing is more marriages, but smaller families. 
Municipalities· and other housing providers will have to construct 
more single-room tenements and hostels for old people who are 
without relatives or friends willing to look after them. Such 
provision is already urgently required, for slum-clearance operations 
have already revealed a large number of old people whose 
relatives or friend_s take the opportunity (or find themselves 
compelled) to rid themselves of an encumbrance. 

The increasing average age is already stimulating the demand 
for all things making for better health; not only for foods but also 
for appliances such :1s improved cookers, refrig-erators, and the 
like. Humanity being what it is, presumably lipstick and other 
beauty preparations ,dentifrices and all preparations or apparatus 
purporting to keep people young, will flourish. For the ever-
growing number of elderly people there will be an increasingdemand for soft foods, drugs and alcohol. Those industries 
providing amenities and recreations favoured by the more mature, 
will meet with a continually growing demand, e.g., the book, radio, 
television and music trades. Gardening is obviously on the 
increase, and particularly greenhouse gardening, which does not 
call for so much bending as the outdoor variety. No one motoringthroughout the country can fail to have been struck by the 
enormous number of establishments breeding and selling dogs, or 
providing homes for domestic pets during the owner's absence. 
Fewer babies, more pets. On the other hand, toyshops are 
becoming fewer and fewer. 


Fina~cial Considerations. 

Much will depend on the standard of living that the country 
can afford. A fall in the number of young people and a rise in 
the number of aged means that there will be a smaller number of 
able-bodied persons having to support a larger number of retired 
and infirm persons. (It may be remarked, incidentally, that half 
the applicants to the Public Assistance Department in London 
for relief are over 65). Twenty-five years hence, the cost of state 
Old Age Pensions will be double what it is to-day, with more 
recipients but fewer contributors and taxpayers. This applies, 
generally speaking, to all public and private pension funds. No 
matter whether the old are supported by their investments, savings, 
relatives or the State, their maintenance is a charge on the national 
income. Someone, somewhere, has to produce to meet their needs. 
On the other hand, the productivity of labour per head has 
enormously increased in the last 20 years, and if, as appears 
probable, this tendency continues, it should constitute some offset 
to the growing poverty of an ageing population. 

The National Debt. 

It is not generally realised that during the past 17 years there 
has been no reduction, but an increase in the sum total of the 
National Debt. At the end of March, 1921, it was £7,623 millions; 
at 31st March, 1938, it was £8,149 millions. Only a small portion()f the cost of rearmament will be paid for out of revenue, and the 
total debt will therefore be increased. The danger of a stationary-let alone an increasing-debt, with a fall in population, is too 
()bvious to need comment. A devaluation of the pou0d, with its 
lighte.ning of the burden of interest payments, appears inevitable. 

Overseas Investments. 

With a declining working population, the income derived from 
Qverseas countries will be a factor of increasing importance. I am 
not he1:e concerned with the question of ownership as between 
individuals; from the national point of view, the interest and 
dividends on overseas investments (irrespective of whether they 
are British Dominions or foreign countries) represent tribute 
requiring no present or future contribution on our part. Assumingsuch income to remain fairly stable, it would obviously represent 
a larger sum per head in a smaller population. I have long held the 
view that this tribute from abroad plays a greater part in maintaining 
the standard of living in this country, than is shown by merely 
relating the monetary value of the return from that source to the 
monetary va:lue of the national income. The capital value of the 
national income includes all goods and services provided by privateand public enterprise. These, according to the most recent 
estimate of Colin Clark ("National Income and Outlay"), amounted 


9 


to £3,897 millions in 1935. The income from our foreign inYestmeuts 
during 1936 is given by Sir ~obert Kindersley (EconomicJournal, Dec~mber, 1937) as £184 millions. If, for purposes of 
easy calculation, we regard the present national income as £4,000 
millions, and the income from overseas investments as £200 
millions, the latter represents one-twentieth of the former. True, 
the population at large does not possess these investments, but the 
i~come derived therefrom enables its recipients to employ fellow 
citizens to the extent of such income. 

The point I wish to make, however, is that, measured by 
its importance to the national standard of living, the part played 
by this income from overseas is much more important than 
would appear from the bald statement that it represents 5% of the 
national income. Included in the £4,000 millions of national 
income are all the individual incomes derived from services, 
which means that if, out of an income of £1,000 a year, a man 
spends £100 on Doctors and loses £200 to bookmakers, these 
(less expenses) are aggregated for purposes of computation of 
the national income, as £1 ,300. Col in Cjark, in his work already 
referred to, maintains (rightly) that this method of computationis correct, for certain services have been rendered, or have been 
s~pposed to be rendered, in return for these payments, and "the 
rate at which these services have been remunerated must have 
corresponded approximately to the rate at which these same 
workers could have sold their services on the market, if they had 
engaged in other work." I submit, however, that our income on 
overseas investments, coming as it does very largely in food-stuffs 
and raw materials, is not comparable with the national income 
which is made up so largely of services, and includes the profits 
or incomes of prize fighters, football pool promotors and greyhound 
racing track owriers, jockeys, etc. Take the case of Argentina. 
In 1937 the income from British investments in that 
country is estimated to have been £12,861,413 (South American 
Journal, 22nd January, 1938). In 1936 the corresponding figure 
was £10,602,162. In the latter year we sold to Argentina goods 
to the value of £15! millions, and "bought" of her £45 millions. 
Of this £45 millions, £10 millions was therefore in payment of 
interest and dividends. It reached us in the shape of wheat and 
other cereals, meat, hides, quebracho, etc.,* which were necessary 
to us and could not be produced within our own country by anydiYersion of labour. This, in my opinion, renders our income 
from overseas investments a factor of the utmost importancein our national economy, and in its effect upon the standard 
of living in this country. Whether or not it will continue at 

*Should our population fall to a point when its consuming capacity was 
not equal to the "tribute" received in this form, the question of how 
payment can be made will become interesting. 


IU 

its · present rate is an open question, in view of certain recent 
defaults, but the fact that over 60% of the total of our overseas 
investments is in the British Empire is of some importance in 
this connection. 

Social Services. 

As the financial effects of a reduction in the number of 
workers and an increase in the number of rentiers and pensionersbecome perceptible, the conflict between conservative and progressive 
elements in the state is likely to become acute. The 
smaller number of children and the larger number of old people 
will increase the demand for futher extensions of social services, 
but the increased burden of indebtedness and the smaller number 
of workers will conduce to more support being given to economy 
campaigns. It is, indeed, possible that the average working age 
may be increased and the pension age retarded. It may be that 
the smaller number of people of working age may object to the 
old people, who are non-workers, having equal voting power with 
those who are producing what they, as a majority, receive. It 
is possible, also, that a more realistic policy will be adopted towards 
incurables and the hopelessly insane. At the present time 
an incurable idiot child in an institution costs the community 
32s. 4d. per week, exclusive of capital charges, whilst the weekly 
allowance to an unemployed man, per child, is 3s.. vVomen will 
be welcomed into industry. Changes in conventional moralitywill follow upon the community's need for children, and subsidies 
to mothers, whether married or not, will almost certainly be 
introduced and continually augmented. Immigration, instead of 
being discouraged as it is to-day, will be organised and stimulated, 
whilst those who endeavour to promote emigration to the 
Dominions or elsewhere will be regarded as enemies of the 
Motherland, for it is not good business to spend hundreds , of 
pounds upon maintaining and educating the young, and then, justwhen they become producers, to export them without any return. 

The Empire and Defence. 

Although, as is shown later, the population tendency here 
described is fairly general, the decline in births and increase in 
average age make the British Empire more vulnerable. The 
present white population of the entire Empire is roughly 70 
millions (of whom 49 millions are in the British Isles) against 
77 millions in the German Reich. In Australia the birth-rate has 
declined from 27 per thousand in 1911 to 17 per thousand in 1926, 
whilst in New Zealand the fall during the same period has been 
from 27 to 16.6 per thousand. In a speech broadcast throughout 
Australia in September, 1937, Mr. Lyons, the Prime Minister, 
stated tnat between 1931 and 1934 a total of 20,000 more people, 
chiefly of British stock, had left Australia, than had entered it. 


11 

He added that the last census showed 518,000 childless marriages, 
and of 866,000 families with dependent children, there were 
342,000 with one child and only 248,000 with three or more 
ch!Idren. He pointed out also that the population was growing 
older and there were relatively fewer women of child-beariagage.* In Canada the birth-rate has fallen from 26.6 in 1920 to 
20 per thousand, which is just about the replacement figure, but 
here the increase is almost wholly among the French population. 
In South Africa the birth-rate of those of European extraction 
has fallen from 31 per thousand in 1913 to 24 per thousand, which 
is a little over the replacement rate, but there again, it is the 
non-British population which is increasing. The religious factor 
does not seem to be of much importance, for if the French-
speaking part of Canada is Roman Catholic, the South African 
Dutch are predominantly Lutheran.t It is noteworthy that both 
the e peoples are largely peasant populations, which uggests that 
divorce from the land may be one cause of decreased fertility. 

The U.S.A. 

The United States of America is following precisely the same 
course as Britain, with a time-lag of 10 or 20 years. In 1915 
the birth-rate was 25.1 and in 1936 16.8 per thousand, which is 
under replacement rate.' The 1930 census showed that as compared 
'with 1920, there were 4,852,000 more married women, but 
128,840 fewer children under five years of age. 

Japan. 

}4pan also shows a falling tendency, but is still well above 
replacement rate, the decline here having been from 35 perthousand in 1921 to 30 per thousand in 1934, but the slowness of 
the decline means that the average population is younger than is 
the case with most countries, although the military caste appears 
to be doing its best to alter this! 

France. 

France was the first to start (in 1923) a system of State 
assistance for poor families, varying according to their size, but 
the allowances were very small, and the effects, if any, have been 
negligible. In 1911 the birth-rate was 19 per 1,000, in 193~ 15, 
and in 1937 14.69 per 1 ,000. Deaths now actually exceed bn·ths 
in France. 

*The Times, 29th September, 1937. 

tIn 1936 there were 8 per cent. less births than the previous yea r, in 

Buenos Aires, the greatest city in South America, where the population

is predominantly Catholic. 


12 

Italy. 


In Western Europe the tendency is the same throughout, and 
<>nly Italy and Germany call for special comment, insofar as they 
have made the most determined efforts by subsidies, tax and other 
measures to bribe people into having larger families. 

Mussolini in 1928 introduced marriage subsidies and taxed 
young bachelors, but the birth-rate continues to decline. In 1911 
it was 31.5 per thousand, and during the first six years of the 
present decade it has been 26.7, 24.9, 23.8. 23.7, 23.4 and 23.3 
respectively. Speaking to an assembly of 60 bishops and 2.000 
priests in Rome, Signor Mussolini said :


"The priests should help to raise the numerical strength--o-f the 
population, since it was the big families which furnished the bigbattalions. Italy, as a Catholic nation, had a special duty to serve as 
a bulwark of Christian civilization, because of her intrinsic strength 
and the number of her sons."* 

A decree dated 1st September, 1938, states that all State 
employees must marry if they desire to obtain promotion-before 
the age of 26 in subordinate grades, and 30 in the highe1· grades. 

Germany. 

It is in Germany that the n~ost active measures have been 
taken of )ate iears to encourage large families. According to an 
official pu\)!ication, the army authorities were perturbed at the 
official estimate that whereas in 1937 young people of both sexes 
who attained their fourteenth year numbered 1,100,000, in 1947 
there would be only 822,000 reaching that age. By an ingenious 
system of marriage loans for the purchase of furniture, there has 
been a large increase in the number of marriages, 822,000 couples 
havirig availed themselves of these facilities during the four years 
up to September, 1937. Hardly a year passes without some increase 
in the inducements offered to increase the number of births. 
The following extract from the Berliner Tageblatt gives some 
idea of these measures :


"A wide extension of the Nationai-Socialist system for subsidising 
families with many children was announced by Herr Reinhardt,
Secretary of State in the Finance Ministry, on December 30, 1937. As 
from April, 1938, the grant of lOm. (16s.) ·a month introduced in the 
summer of 1936 for fifth or later children of socially insured workers 
earning low wages, is to be given for the third or fourth child, and 20m. 
(32s.) a month will be given for the fifth or later child. The wage limit 
for beneficiaries, now 200m. (£16) is also increased to 600m. (£48) a 
month. The effect of these changes will be to quadruple the numher of 
children for which grants will be made in 1938. Such payments are 
additional to the single grant of goods or assistance to the value of 
330m. (£27 10s. Od.) made since 1935 to needy families on the birth of 
a child, and a further 270,000,000 marks (£22,500,000) will be set aside 
for this purpose, in addition to the existing 250,000,000 marks." 

~Daily Telegraph, lOth January, 1938. 


13 


As an afterthought-for it had been apparently overlooked-
some of these concessions, such as a rebate of Income Tax proportionate 
to the number of children, have been cancelled as. 
regards the Jewish population. The result of all these measures 
has undoubtedly been to stop the fall in the birth-rate, which in 
1911 was 28.6 per thousand, in 1921 25.3 and in 1933 14.7, for in 
1934 it rose to 18, in 1935 18.9 and in 1936 19.0 per thousand · 
!his i still probably under replacement rate, but on the surfac~ 
tt looks as though the measures taken have at least checked the 
decline. My own opinion is that the improvement will prove to 
be temporary, and that these subsidies and concessions promote 
earlier marriages, rather than larger families. If a couple marryearlier, they may have their children earlier, but those whose ideal 
is a two-child or three-child family are not going to produce a 
much larger number of children just because they have married' 
younger. Time will show whether this supposition is correct, 
or not. 

In Great Britain the number of marriages has also increased 
since 1933, without any subsidy, the reason being the improvement 
in trade, and that is already being reflected by the slight 
increase in the number of births mentioned previously. 

U.S.S.R. 
No figures are yet available for Russia, but it is generally 
understood that the birth-rate is above replacement level. 

Replacement or Reproduction Rate. 

These expressions have been much used in the foregoing 
notes. Professor Robert R. Kuczynski has provided the perfect 
formula for determining the reproduction rate in his book The 
Measurement of Population Growth (Sidgwick and Jackson, 
12s. 6d.). He points out that for this statistical purpose one needs 
to take into account only the female population, and that if fertilityand mortality are such that 1,000 newly-born girls, during the 
course of their lives, give birth to 1,000 girls, the first 
generation of 1,000 females will, at its death, have_ been_ fully r~placed 
by the girls they have borne, and the populatwn will remam 
constant; otherwise it will, in the long run, increase_ or decrease. It 
remains to be added that on this basis the population of Englandand Wales is reproducing itself to the extent of slightly less t~an 
75 %, and that to maintain the population, each wom~n of chtldbearing 
age should, during her life, produce three chtldren. 

Causes of the Decline. 

The theory sometimes heard that there is a strike against 
motherhood on account of the unsettled state of the world, does 
not find support from the high birth rates during periods when 


14 

wars were endemic. Greater knowledge of birth control methods, 
together with the determination of the modern woman to 
participate more fully in life itself than in its creation, is the 
more likely explanation. 

Conclusion. 

l·nless some totally unforeseen circumstances arise, the outlook 
is that, beginning some time during the next decade, thi:; 
country will have a declining population with, for several years, 
a sharp increase in the average age. The opinion may be expressed 
that, excluding the question of military power, there is nu 
inherent vi rtue or advantage in a large population; the averageinhabitant of Sweden or Switzerland is no less happy, or less 
prosperous, than his contemporary in France or Britain-let 
alone China. But the outcome of the social and economic effects 
of the changes here described, involving a decrease in the population, 
coupled with an increase in the proportion of the aged, at 
the expense of children and workers, will be far-reaching, and 
will involve great social disturbances unless preceded, or at least 
accompanied, by a drastic redistribution of income and a rc-
Qrganization of society. 


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